Bitcoin Below $78K: Why the Setup Looks Bearish

Tuesday's session had a split personality. Equities pushed higher — the S&P 500 gained close to 0.8% [1] — while the underlying macro picture stayed complicated. The main narrative early in the day was geopolitical: hopes for a US-Iran peace deal sent oil lower and the dollar softer, only for those hopes to waver as Rubio's comments and continued US military presence dampened optimism [2]. That back-and-forth left risk appetite in a holding pattern rather than any clean directional move. On the macro data side, today's prints were actually decent. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 0.4 for May, beating both the…