Performance Methodology
How signal performance data is collected, calculated, and what the metrics do — and do not — mean for future trading outcomes.
Important: Performance figures on TradingNews24 are presented for informational context only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Some figures may include simulated or backtested data. See the full explanation below. Read Risk Disclosure →
What Counts as a Signal
A signal is a structured market observation generated by the TradingNews24 system. Each signal includes:
- A symbol (e.g. EURUSD, BTCUSD, AAPL)
- A directional bias (long or short)
- An entry reference price or zone
- One or more take-profit levels
- A stop-loss level
- A generation timestamp
- The data inputs that triggered the signal (news sentiment, technical conditions, or both)
Signals are not execution instructions. They are structured research outputs. Whether a user follows, modifies, or ignores a signal is entirely their own decision.
What Counts as a Closed Signal
A signal is considered closed when one of the following conditions is met, whichever occurs first:
Price reaches the defined take-profit level. The signal is closed as a win.
Price reaches the defined stop-loss level. The signal is closed as a loss.
The signal reaches its maximum holding time without hitting either level. Handled as described below.
Live, Simulated, Paper, and Backtested Results
Understanding the difference between these result types is critical when interpreting any performance figure:
| Type | Definition | Reliability note |
|---|---|---|
| Live | Signal generated and published in real time. Outcome tracked against live market prices. | Most credible. No hindsight bias. Subject to short track records. |
| Paper / Simulated | Signal generated in real time but without real-money execution. Outcome tracked against market prices. | Forward-looking, no hindsight bias. Real-world execution conditions (spread, slippage) may not be reflected. |
| Backtested | Signal rules applied to historical data. Outcomes calculated after the fact. | Subject to overfitting and hindsight bias. Cannot replicate real execution. Treat with caution. |
TradingNews24 will label performance data by type where possible. If no label is present and you are unsure, treat the data as informational only and do not base trading decisions on it.
How Win Rate Is Calculated
Win rate is the percentage of closed signals that reached a take-profit level before the stop-loss was hit:
Expired signals (those that close due to time without hitting either level) are excluded from the win rate denominator unless stated otherwise.
Win rate alone does not indicate profitability. A system with a 40% win rate can be highly profitable if winners are significantly larger than losers. A 70% win rate can be unprofitable if the average loss is much larger than the average win. Always consider win rate alongside risk-reward ratio and profit factor.
How Profit Factor Is Calculated
Profit factor measures the ratio of gross profit to gross loss across all closed signals:
A profit factor above 1.0 means the system produced more profit than loss over the measured period. A profit factor below 1.0 means aggregate losses exceeded aggregate profits.
Profit factor is calculated using the defined take-profit and stop-loss levels, assuming uniform position sizing. It does not account for broker commissions, spreads, slippage, or the compounding effect of actual capital growth or drawdown.
How Drawdown Is Calculated
Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in cumulative hypothetical profit across the measured signal sequence:
Drawdown figures assume uniform position sizing. They are calculated on the theoretical take-profit and stop-loss outcomes, not on real trade execution.
Actual drawdown in a live trading account can differ significantly from theoretical drawdown due to execution differences, variable lot sizes, partial exits, and broker-specific conditions.
Open, Expired, and Cancelled Signals
Signal has been generated and published. Neither take-profit nor stop-loss has been reached yet. Open signals are not included in closed performance statistics.
Signal reached its maximum holding window without a take-profit or stop-loss outcome. Expired signals are recorded separately. They are excluded from win rate calculations unless stated, because they represent an indeterminate outcome rather than a clear win or loss.
Signal was voided before resolution — for example, due to a data error, a major conflicting news event, or an obvious mapping mistake identified before market open. Cancelled signals are excluded from all performance calculations.
Data Limitations
The following limitations apply to all performance data published by TradingNews24:
- No independent audit: Performance figures are not independently audited or verified by a third party unless explicitly stated.
- No real-money track record: Unless explicitly labelled as live real-money trading, performance figures do not reflect an actual trading account.
- No execution costs: Spread, commission, slippage, and financing costs are not deducted from performance figures unless explicitly stated.
- Uniform position sizing assumed: Performance figures assume equal position size for every signal. Real trading with variable sizing would produce different outcomes.
- Price data accuracy: Outcome prices are derived from market data feeds which may contain gaps, errors, or imprecisions, particularly for less liquid instruments.
- Survivorship bias in backtests: Backtested results may be subject to selection bias if the test universe excludes instruments that were delisted or otherwise unavailable during the test period.
Why Performance Is Not a Guarantee
Even a genuine, verified, live trading track record cannot be relied upon as a guarantee of future performance. Markets are non-stationary: the conditions that drove past outcomes — volatility regimes, liquidity, macro environment, correlations — change over time.
Any system that has performed well historically may perform poorly in the future. This is true for all trading systems, signal services, funds, and strategies without exception.
TradingNews24 publishes performance data to provide context and transparency about the outputs of our system. We do not publish performance data to imply that future results will be similar to past results. If you see performance figures elsewhere that make such an implication, treat them with scepticism.
Last reviewed: May 2026