Cool CPI, Hot Oil: Why Markets Can't Pick a Side

Wednesday's session is built around one data point: July CPI landed almost exactly where forecasters expected, with headline inflation at 3.4% YoY and core at 2.5%, both a touch cooler than June [1][2]. That's not a dramatic cooling, but it's enough to keep the September Fed decision a genuine coin flip rather than a settled bet. The catch is that the inflation narrative isn't unified — Jamie Dimon is warning AI-driven spending could keep price pressure sticky [3], Fed's Schmid is pushing for higher rates as mortgages sit near 6.7% [4], and reports around a potential Warsh Fed chair pick have…