Market Context
Soft US retail sales and cooling inflation have tilted the dollar into broad retreat. With EURUSD breaking higher and multi-timeframe momentum aligning, we break down the key pullback levels to watch, alongside setups in MSFT, USDCAD, and Brent crude.
Newsletter – August 17, 2026
Market Overview
The trading session is dominated by a clear repricing of Federal Reserve expectations following a soft patch in US economic data, led by a 0.6% contraction in July retail sales and moderating inflation readings
[1][2][3]. This has triggered broad-based pressure on the US dollar, pushing major currency pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD toward multi-month highs
[4][5]. Pockets of manufacturing strength, such as the NY Empire State index jumping to 20.60, have prevented a full macro rout, but the general path of least resistance for the greenback remains to the downside. Equities are holding their ground near record territory as mega-cap…
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Key Levels & Market Scenarios
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