The Dollar’s Hawkish Reset: Why EURUSD Is Now a Sell on Rallies

The market's tone shifted violently after the Federal Reserve effectively slammed the door on near-term easing. New Chair Kevin Warsh eliminated forward guidance and the FOMC projected a higher 3.8% terminal rate by the end of 2026 [1]. This hawkish reality check sparked immediate risk-off flows, dragging major US indices lower and catapulting the US dollar across the board [2][3]. The macro regime has suddenly flipped, and markets are swiftly repricing to accommodate a higher-for-longer reality. Across the FX space, the dollar's dominance is the only story that matters today. EURUSD slumped to a 2.5-month low below 1.15 [4], while the…