USDCAD breakout: Why the setup works despite overbought RSI

Friday's session has a distinctly cautious feel despite equity futures pointing modestly higher. The macro backdrop is doing a lot of work here — Fed Governor Waller's comments out of Frankfurt were notably hawkish, explicitly flagging that rate hikes can no longer be ruled out down the road and that he wants to remove any easing bias from forward guidance [1][2]. That language landed alongside a U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading of 44.8 for May, well below the 48.2 forecast, with 5-year inflation expectations revised sharply higher to 3.9% versus a preliminary 3.4% [3]. That combination — a consumer who is…